爱玩客

Continued weak yen may create new problems even after US-Japan intervention_我的网站

A |

Illustration: Xia Qing/GT
The yen has weakened in recent days, edging closer to the psychologically important 160 level against the US dollar. The decline comes despite the widely watched move by Washington to join Tokyo in supporting the currency. Less than two weeks after the US-Japan intervention, the yen has given up roughly half of its gains, raising fresh questions over the effectiveness of coordinated efforts to stabilize the exchange rate.
Japan and the US had previously confirmed coordinated foreign exchange intervention to prop up the yen after the currency tumbled to a nearly 40-year low. At the time, some observers saw the move as potentially stabilizing the yen in the short term, although its longer-term impact remained uncertain.
However, the subsequent market reaction suggests that even the short-term effect may have been limited. After strengthening to about 155 per dollar in the days following the intervention from above 163, the yen had slipped back above 159 by Wednesday, less than two weeks later.
Questions have emerged over whether further support for the yen may soon be needed, and whether Washington would consider stepping in again. The previous intervention was seen by some observers as a test of market confidence: the unusual coordinated move had the potential to influence market expectations and discourage bets against the yen. But if market expectations remain largely unchanged, repeated interventions could deliver diminishing returns. The US may face a difficult trade-off. Another intervention could require greater resources and come at a higher cost, while refraining from further action could raise questions over the lasting impact of the previous effort.
Market commentary has added to the uncertainty. Axios published a report headlined "Yen's weakness shows market isn't done pushing," while some reports suggested that the impact of the US-Japan intervention was beginning to fade. Such narratives could weigh on sentiment toward the yen and reinforce market expectations that the currency's weakness may persist.
Washington's involvement in supporting the yen may reflect broader economic and policy considerations. These could include avoiding a scenario in which Japan sells US Treasury holdings to support the currency, as well as concerns that a weaker yen could give Japanese exporters a greater competitive advantage. These possible considerations suggest that the intervention alone does not fully address the underlying forces behind the yen's weakness. This may help explain why the market has so far been reluctant to view the move as a turning point for the currency.
Washington's decision to join the intervention may have reflected concerns, as some observers suggest, that the yen's prolonged weakness had begun to affect US interests. If markets remain unconvinced by the US-Japan intervention, one possible outcome is that Washington could push Japan to take more costly measures to support the yen. Such a scenario could instead create some strain between Washington and Tokyo.
Beyond short-term market dynamics, the yen's weakness also reflects deeper challenges facing the Japanese economy, making a sustained reversal difficult. The currency's prolonged weakness has been influenced by the interest rate gap between Japan and the US, while also reflecting longer-term concerns over the diminishing returns of Japan's traditional growth model.
This leaves Japan facing a delicate policy balance between supporting growth and stabilizing the currency. While lower interest rates could help boost economic activity, continued weakness in the yen may strengthen calls for Japan's central bank to consider further rate increases to narrow the interest rate gap with the US.
Japan's structural challenges mean that a sustained appreciation of the yen will not be easy to achieve. The question of whether to pursue stronger measures, even at the cost of some economic growth, has become more complicated as the US takes a role in the issue. Japan may face greater pressure to support the currency, even though doing so would be difficult and could carry broader economic costs.
The author is a reporter with the Global Times. [email protected]

。

B | 37岁的凯文·杜兰特，可能正在走向职业生涯最关键的一次选择。

C | 他已经拥有大多数球员无法企及的荣誉。两座总冠军奖杯、两次总决赛MVP、历史级别的得分能力。但对于杜兰特来说，真正的问题从来不是“还能不能打”。而是：职业生涯最后几年，他还想证明什么？如果未来真的出现加盟纽约尼克斯的机会，这不会只是一次普通转会。

D | 因为现在的尼克斯，已经不是等待救世主的球队。他们是卫冕冠军。

E | 而杜兰特面对的，是一次关于冠军、历史评价和职业生涯最后篇章的选择。尼克斯需要杜兰特，但不是为了拯救球队过去，超级巨星来到纽约，往往承担的是改变球队命运的任务。但现在的尼克斯，身份已经不同。他们已经证明自己具备争冠实力。拥有冠军基础、成熟体系，以及继续竞争最高目标的机会。对于卫冕冠军来说，最大的挑战不是证明自己能赢一次。而是：如何保持长期竞争力。冠军之后，球队会面对更多问题。核心球员状态变化。阵容深度调整。联盟其他球队针对。

F | 这时候，一名经验丰富、能够解决关键问题的超级得分手，价值巨大。

G | 而杜兰特，依然拥有这样的能力。杜兰特最大的争议：冠军，还是证明？如果杜兰特加盟尼克斯，外界讨论最多的问题不会只是： “他能不能夺冠？” 而会变成： “这样的冠军，会如何影响他的历史评价？” 这是杜兰特职业生涯一直面对的话题。加盟勇士时期，他拿到了冠军，也连续两年获得总决赛MVP。但关于他的选择，外界争议从未完全消失。有人认为：超级巨星追求胜利，本身没有问题。也有人认为：真正伟大的球员，需要证明自己能够改变球队。所以未来任何选择，对杜兰特来说都不仅是篮球决定。也是历史叙事的一部分。纽约最大的吸引力，是舞台对于任何NBA球星来说，纽约都有特殊意义。这里拥有联盟最大的关注度。这里的成功，会被无限放大。如果杜兰特能够帮助尼克斯延续冠军竞争力，甚至建立新的时代，那将成为他职业生涯最后阶段的重要篇章。因为历史评价，不只是看你拿过多少荣誉。也看你在哪些地方完成过什么事情。

H | 纽约，就是这样一个能够放大故事的地方。 37岁的杜兰特，还需要证明自己吗？这是所有讨论的核心。有人认为：杜兰特已经无需证明。他的个人能力、冠军经历、关键表现，已经足够伟大。但也有人认为：职业生涯最后阶段的选择，仍然会影响历史定位。如果他能够在不同环境下继续赢球，甚至帮助卫冕冠军完成更大的成就，那么他的传奇故事会更加完整。

I | 超级球星和普通球员最大的区别就在这里。普通球员考虑下一份合同。超级巨星考虑最后留下什么。

J | 最后的选择，决定最后的故事 37岁的杜兰特，面对的不是简单的球队选择。而是职业生涯最后章节怎么书写。留在熟悉环境，继续冲击冠军。还是来到纽约，在最大的舞台接受最大的压力。没有绝对正确答案。但对于一名曾经改变NBA进攻方式的超级得分手来说，最后的选择，本身就是传奇的一部分。杜兰特已经创造了辉煌。接下来，他追求的或许不只是下一座奖杯。而是一个让所有人记住的结局。